☕ Gold near $4,700 is squeezing jewelry margins, Brilliant Earth's fine jewelry arm is booming, and natural diamonds are fighting back. Thu, May 14

Good morning, jeweler. It is Thursday, gold is near $4,700 an ounce and it is doing complicated things to your margins. Let's get into it.

The World Gold Council just dropped its Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends report and the jewelry number is jarring: volume demand fell 23% year over year. That is a big drop. But here is the thing that makes it complicated: total spend on gold jewelry was up 31% over the same period. Customers are buying less gold jewelry by weight and by unit count, but they are spending more per purchase. That tells you the customer who is buying is committed and trading up, while the price-sensitive buyer has stepped back entirely.

Gold sat near $4,700 an ounce as of this week, down from its January 2026 all-time high of $5,589 but still historically extreme. At these levels, a classic solid gold band that cost $800 two years ago might retail for $1,400 today. Your margin math is different now too. Gold at $4,700 means your metal cost on a 14k piece is roughly four times what it was in 2020. If you have not repriced your inventory or updated your custom quote process to lock gold at deposit time, now is the moment. The customers buying at these prices are not flinching at the number. Make sure your ticket sizes reflect that reality.

The long-term picture from JP Morgan and other institutional forecasters still targets gold at $5,000. That is not a guarantee, but it is a signal. Jewelers who learn to sell the story of gold as a store of value, not just a material, will have an easier time at these price levels than those still apologizing for the number on the tag.

Brilliant Earth reported Q1 2026 earnings on May 6 and the headline is a split: total net sales grew 6% year over year to $99.5 million, hitting the high end of guidance, but the company posted a net loss of $8.5 million compared to $3.3 million a year ago. Margin compression was significant at 430 basis points, driven by high precious metal prices and tariff impacts. The bright spot is unmistakable: fine jewelry bookings grew 33% year over year and now represent 17% of total bookings. Management said the fine jewelry segment is on track to become a $100 million business.

For indie jewelers, the Brilliant Earth data is a useful market signal even if their customer and yours are different. The trend is clear: bridal is soft and fine jewelry is the growth engine right now. Customers who might have come in for an engagement ring are either delaying, downsizing, or skipping the traditional diamond solitaire. But those same customers are buying more casual fine jewelry: stackable rings, earrings, pendants, gold pieces with personal meaning. If you have not built out your non-bridal case in the last 12 months, the data says you should. The bridal customer will come back. The fine jewelry opportunity is right now.

The Centurion newsletter published a detailed piece on what it calls the inevitable shift: natural diamonds are regaining momentum after two years of lab-grown dominance. The argument is not just sentiment. Lab-grown wholesale prices have been in a multi-year freefall and the excess inventory sitting on retail shelves is starting to weigh on consumer confidence. When a customer sees that the lab-grown stone they bought for $2,000 two years ago now costs $600 wholesale, the value proposition becomes harder to defend.

Natural diamonds have a genuine scarcity story right now, especially with Ekati in insolvency and broader mine supply tightening. The customers doing research are finding that narrative and responding to it. The practical move for indie jewelers is not to abandon lab-grown, it is to sharpen how you tell both stories. Lab-grown has a real place for customers who want size and budget flexibility. But if a customer is wavering, the natural diamond story, especially on provenance, rarity, and long-term hold value, is a stronger close than it has been in years. Know when to deploy it.

Jewelers of America announced the 40 honorees of its 2026 20 Under 40 program, recognizing young professionals under 40 who exemplify exceptional leadership, creativity, and commitment to the industry. This year the program expanded to include both retail (20 honorees) and supplier (20 honorees) categories, up from retail only in prior years. The full list is on jewelers.org. Sponsors are Jewelers Mutual Group and Synchrony.

Why this matters beyond the recognition: the 20 Under 40 list is a useful networking tool heading into JCK. If you are attending the show in 16 days, look through the honoree list before you go. Several of them will be on the show floor and many are exactly the kind of next-generation operators worth knowing, whether as peers, potential hires, or supplier contacts. JA has done the curation work for you.

A new market report shows the global personalized jewelry market grew 16% in 2026, reaching $42.25 billion, up from $36.98 billion in 2025. The driver is millennial and Gen Z consumers who increasingly prefer pieces with personal meaning over ready-made options. Birthstone jewelry, name necklaces, custom engagement rings, and engraved pieces are all part of the mix. The category is growing faster than the broader jewelry market by a significant margin.

For indie jewelers, this is your home turf. Custom and personalized work is the thing you can do that no e-commerce platform or chain store replicates at the same level of intimacy. If you are not actively merchandising your custom capabilities, including talking about turnaround times, pricing transparency, and the process itself, you are leaving money in a category that is growing at 16% annually. Make sure your website, your social, and your in-store conversation all tell the custom story clearly. Customers are already looking for it.

JCK Las Vegas is 16 days out (May 29, Venetian Expo) and the education programming is worth planning around before you arrive. JCK Talks sessions are free to all attendees and start Thursday May 28, one day before the main show opens. Tracks include AI and Analytics, Business Management, Marketing, Retail Trends, Social Media, and a brand new Watches track. Workshops on mechanical movement disassembly and reassembly run Friday May 29 through Sunday May 31, with lectures on watchmaking complications Saturday and Sunday.

This year's theme is "In Your Element," built around immersive activations on the show floor. The practical advice: map your education sessions before you get there. The show is big enough that walking in without a plan means losing hours. Block your JCK Talks sessions first, then build your vendor appointments around them. If watches are part of your business at all, the new Watches track in the education program and the Timepieces at Luxury hall are both worth a deliberate walk-through.

Sixteen days to Vegas and the gold market is doing its best to keep things interesting in the meantime. Stay sharp on your pricing and we will see you on the floor. ☕
Karat Clark, Carats & Coffee